It's Chávez vs. U.S. Ally for U.N. Seat
By Pablo Bachelet
The Miami Herald
October 11, 2006

WASHINGTON - Beyond the diplomatic chatter and a sense of international respect for the winners, elections to seats on the United Nations Security Council are usually drab affairs.

Until this year. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is challenging U.S.-backed Guatemala for a seat, triggering what many analysts and diplomats are calling the hottest Security Council race in nearly 30 years.

The 192 U.N. member nations will vote at a General Assembly session Monday on which of the two countries will succeed Argentina for a two-year term in the council seat reserved for Latin America. A two-thirds vote is required to win. There's a chance that neither will prevail and another country will be chosen as a compromise.

Chávez's self-avowed campaign to forge a Third World bloc against Washington's ''hegemonistic tendencies'' has transformed the race into a popularity contest between President Bush and the Venezuelan leader, who called Bush a devil during a speech last month to the General Assembly.

''In many ways, we can take this vote as a plebiscite on the U.S. position and how it's perceived within the U.N.,'' said Don Kraus, executive vice president of Citizens for Global Solutions, a nonpartisan organization that advocates increased cooperation among countries.

U.N. member nations also will vote on council seats for representatives from Africa, Europe and Asia on Monday. But most of the attention will be centered on the Guatemala-Venezuela contest.

''I have never recalled so many media headlines'' on a council election, says Heraldo Muñoz, the U.N. ambassador from Chile. ``The awareness has almost come to a man-on-the-street level.''

COLD WAR ERA

To find a more contentious race, he added, one has to go back to Cuba's bids during the Cold War. In 1979, Cuba and Colombia went through 154 rounds of voting over three months -- with each failing to get the two-thirds of the votes required for victory -- before Mexico was finally picked as a consensus alternative.

Cuba ran again the following year, and after 23 rounds of voting in which several contenders rotated in and out, Panama emerged as the winner. Cuba eventually won a term, for 1990 and 1991.

A Chávez defeat would be a blow for his ambitions to become a leading voice of the underdeveloped world, while a victory would be an embarrassment for the Bush administration, which accuses the left-wing leader of everything from undermining democracy in Venezuela and around Latin America to failing to cooperate in the fight against drug trafficking and terrorism.

''This is about whether or not a state is responsible or simply wishes to have a constant struggle with the United States every day on every issue, thereby making the Security Council unworkable,'' Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told The Wall Street Journal last month.

Chávez retorts that he is defending himself from U.S. plans to topple him or invade his country, and says Washington's policies are impoverishing people around the world. Each side denies the other's accusations.

Viewed as the world's premiere multilateral conflict-resolving institution, the Security Council oversees 70,000 blue-helmeted peacekeepers worldwide and can slap sanctions on wayward nations.

OBSTRUCTIONIST

The Bush administration fears Chávez will use a Security Council seat not only as a platform to berate Bush but to play an obstructionist role as the council debates hot-button issues like Iran and North Korea. U.S. officials have complained that Chávez is using his oil wealth to expand his influence around the globe -- and looking for General Assembly votes.

The council's five permanent members -- the United States, China, Great Britain, Russia and France -- mostly call the shots, thanks to their veto power. But passing a resolution still requires at least nine votes in the 15-member body.

The presidency of the council is rotated among members for a one-month period, meaning Venezuela could chair the body at least once during its term, serving as its spokesperson and influencing its agenda.

Plus, the Security Council operates about a dozen committees, usually chaired by nonpermanent members, that monitor everything from sanctions against Sudan to counterterrorism and nuclear proliferation issues.

Venezuela's candidacy has divided Latin America along its political and regional fault lines.

Central America, ruled mostly by conservative pro-U.S. governments, is backing Guatemala. South America, run mostly by moderate leftist governments more critical of Washington, has tended to side with Chávez.

EXCEPTIONS

But there are exceptions: Colombia, one of the world's top beneficiaries of U.S. military aid, backs Guatemala. And Peru, where a Chávez-backed presidential candidate was defeated in recent elections, plans to abstain.

The Caribbean Community -- potentially benefiting from oil subsidies offered by Venezuela and opposed to Guatemala over its long-standing border dispute with Belize -- has indicated that its 14 votes in the U.N. General Assembly might go to Venezuela.

Guatemala beat Venezuela in a vote earlier this year for a seat on the U.N.'s Human Rights Council, but Chávez has since traveled the globe in search of support, including trips to a vote-rich summit of 116 nonaligned nations in Havana last month and a July summit of 53 African Union countries in The Gambia.

Venezuelan officials say they have secured the votes of most African nations, the 22-member League of Arab Nations plus China and Russia, among others. U.S. officials expect Guatemala to pick the votes of many European and Asian democracies.

LAST-MINUTE DECISIONS

Informal counts put Venezuela at around 100 votes and Guatemala at 90, but Muñoz cautions that one-third of the nations usually decide on their vote at the last moment.

Guatemala has tried to shake off the notion that it is simply doing Washington's bidding. The country argues it launched its election bid in 2002 -- well ahead of Venezuela -- and that despite being a founding member of the United Nations and a contributor to some of its peacekeeping missions, it has never sat on the council.

Venezuela has been elected to four previous stints on the Security Council, all before Chávez was elected president in 1998.

''In some countries, I have to admit, the U.S. has come on too strong in its opposition to Venezuela,'' Guatemalan Foreign Minister Gert Rosenthal told the Associated Press last month. ``We would be happier if they would not promote our cause so much, because we would like to be our own promoter.''

Observers believe that on Oct. 16 Venezuela will receive more votes than Guatemala but fall short of the two-thirds threshold. Already, media reports in Latin America are suggesting that the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Uruguay or Panama may step forward as alternatives.

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