Citizens for Global Solutions

U.S. GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT | Pew Center Interview

INTERVIEW: Carroll Doherty, Associate Director, Pew Research Center for the People & the Press

A new Pew poll released August 18 shows that for the first time since the Vietnam era, foreign affairs and national security issues are looming larger than economic concerns in a presidential election. The following is an interview with the Pew Research Center's Associate Director, Carroll Doherty.

GS: What role is foreign policy and international security issues playing in the elections?

Doherty: Our polls show that foreign policy is now playing a more important role in the presidential campaign than in any election since 1972. Clearly, this is due to the war and the continuing threat of terrorism. This represents a major shift, particularly when compared with the last three campaigns (1992, 1996 and 2000), which were conducted after the cold war ended and centered largely on economic issues. Exactly how foreign policy and national security will impact the race is much less clear. Americans remain concerned over terrorism, and favor tough measures to deal with the threat. 88% rate protecting against terrorist attacks as a top policy priority and 60% say preemptive force against potential adversaries is at least sometimes justified. In effect, the electorate is saying "protect us." So far, this has played into Bush's strengths -- he has the advantage over Kerry on terrorism and an even larger lead on leadership.

However, our polling finds cross-cutting pressures in public opinion. There is widespread concern about the U.S. image in the world and the state of relations with U.S. allies. Given that, Kerry's repeated contentions that the Iraq war has damaged key alliances -- thus undermining U.S. security – could touch a nerve with many voters.

GS: Is the public concerned by the way the U.S. is perceived in the world?

Doherty: Two-thirds of the respondents in our poll say the U.S. is less respected than in the past. By nearly two-to-one (43%-24%) this is seen as a major problem for the U.S.

What is striking is the degree to which views on the war in Iraq influences these attitudes. 87% of those who feel the war was the wrong decision believes the U.S. is less respected compared with 53% of those who feel the war was the right decision. The public desires better relations with allies, but at the same time wants to preserve U.S. freedom of action in the war on terror.

GS: In an election year, there is a lot of focus on undecided “swing” voters – what are they thinking about U.S. foreign policy?

Doherty: Swing voters largely reflect general public opinion on U.S. global image: 69% say U.S. is less respected and 44% view this as a major problem. In nearly all their long-term foreign policy priorities, swing voters are much closer to Kerry voters than to Bush voters.

But on some questions relating to war on terror -- such as whether the bigger concern is that the government will go too far in infringing on civil liberties, or not far enough in protecting the country -- swing voters express the latter concern, siding with Bush voters.

GS: 48% of the public feel that strengthening the UN is a top foreign policy priority, up from 42% before the attacks of 9-11. What do you think has caused this increase?

Doherty: There has been a modest rise in the percentage of Americans who rate strengthening the UN as a top policy priority. And it's an issue on which Kerry voters and swing voters see pretty much eye-to-eye: 56% of Kerry voters and 53% of swing voters rate it as a top priority, compared with just 35% of Bush voters.

Previous polls have shown that public support for the UN had declined in recent years, possibly from fallout over the bitter debate leading up to the Iraq war. In March 2004, 54% expressed a favorable view of the UN, down from 77% in early September 2001 (before the 9/11 attacks).

GS: Policymakers often say that public opinion on foreign policy does not matter because people do not vote on the issue. Is this changing?

Doherty: Our poll and other available data indicate that people will, for the first time in a long time, vote on foreign policy. The reasons are two-fold: the continuing terror threat and the war in Iraq.

I think we are just coming to grips with how this could affect politics over the long-term. For one thing, it is unlikely that either party will nominate anyone who does not have at least some foreign policy experience, as the GOP did in 2000 nominating George W. Bush and the Democrats did in 1992 nominating Bill Clinton. 9/11 and Iraq have profoundly changed the way Americans think about foreign policy, and this will be reflected in political campaigns for many years to come.

Last Updated October 17, 2005

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