Citizens for Global Solutions

U.S. GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT | U.S. Public Opinion

STUDY SHOWS RIFT BETWEEN PUBLIC OPINION AND AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY

In the last few years, the importance of the United States’ role in the international arena has become increasingly apparent. The events of 9/11, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have intensified Americans’ interest in foreign policy by highlighting the domestic repercussions of global events and American foreign policy. Abroad, the Bush administration’s unilateral policies have demonstrated the unique position of influence the U.S. occupies as the world’s sole remaining superpower and how deeply decisions made within America’s borders impact the rest of the world. The current Presidential election has been called the first “global election” because of this impact, but one in which only Americans will vote. That is why it is essential to understand the perceptions of the American public and American policymakers on foreign policy.

Recent research conducted by the Chicago Council of Foreign Relations and the Program on International Policy Issues (Read Report) demonstrates where there is agreement between leaders and the public on foreign policy, where there is disagreement, and where there is a misperception by leaders of public opinion. According to the report, differences in opinion can sometimes be attributed to gaps in awareness or information. They may also explain the tendency of policymakers to adopt a foreign policy that is not representative of public opinion.

The report states that the key to understanding foreign policy is knowing what policymakers perceive as public opinion, not what public opinion actually is. For instance, polls found that 71% of the public and 72% of policymakers support a U.S. involvement in the Kyoto Protocols. However, despite this support, the United States remains one of the few industrialized countries that has not ratified the treaty. An explanation for this discordant policy might be found in the answers policymakers gave when asked the percentage of the public that they thought supported the treaty. Only 38% correctly assumed that a majority of the public supported ratification and only 28% correctly thought it was a large majority. Such misperceptions may account for why policymakers often contradict their own beliefs to support foreign policy they mistakenly believe will please their constituencies.

The same situation applies to international institutions such as the UN. When asked whether the U.S. should accept collective decisions of the UN, 66% of the public were in favor of it along with 78% of leaders. Again, there was a discrepancy in policymakers’ perceptions of public opinion. Only 26% were correct in thinking that there was broad public support for accepting collective decisions. Such disconnections between public opinion and policymakers’ perceptions may help to explain why the U.S. continues to pursue a largely unilateral foreign policy when a large majority of both the public and policymakers favor a multilateral approach.

The International Criminal Court is a third example of a foreign policy option rejected despite popular support. 76% of the public and 70% of policymakers favor U.S. participation in the ICC, but only 30% of policymakers thought that there was popular support for participation.

The opinion gap between policymakers and the public is not the only gap researchers identified. They also found that an information gap existed when it came to understanding their foreign policy positions in relation to their peers. Both members of the public and policymakers tended to make the incorrect assumption that their opinions were in the minority. For instance, those who felt that global warming was an important issue thought that most people would not share this view. Many policymakers commented that they were not aware that their opinions were in the majority among other members of their profession. This second gap is significant because people often become more passive about their opinions if they feel they are not in the majority and could be ridiculed for acting on them. It is particularly troubling in the case of policymakers since it demonstrates a substantial failure to communicate, making policymakers as disengaged from each other as they are from the public.

The results of the poll also demonstrate a gap in the public’s understanding of both foreign policy options and current policies. As policymakers’ actions often rest on an inaccurate perception of the attitudes of the public and their peers, so individuals’ assumptions about what U.S. foreign policy is, or should be, are often based on inaccurate or incomplete information. For example, when asked their opinion on the Kyoto Treaty, many people had either not heard of it or assumed that the U.S. had already ratified it. If they had not heard of it, when the Treaty was described to them they thought it was something the U.S. would support, although in reality the U.S. has refused to ratify the Treaty.

Misinformation and miscommunication have created a gap in American foreign policy. The assumptions made by the public and policymakers have created a situation where the right hand does not know what the left is doing. Without knowledge of opinions, foreign policy becomes even more disconnected from the will of the country.

Last Updated October 17, 2005

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