Citizens for Global Solutions

PEACE AND SECURITY | Afghanistan

Background

In 1996 the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan and introduced an extremist Islamic rule over the country. Women were excluded from society, punishments such as stoning to death and amputation were imposed, and human rights abuses were commonplace. In addition, Al Qaeda was given a base from which to operate its international terrorist network. After September 11, 2001, a US-led coalition ousted the Taliban as part of the “war on terror.” The coalition created a transitional government led by Hamid Karzai to restore governance and the rule of law to the country. In March 2002 the UN Security Council adopted resolution 1401, to establish a United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). The aim of UNAMA is to integrate the work of the 16 UN agencies working in the country so that they could provide support to the transitional government in the reconstruction and stabilization of the country.

After the Taliban

However, despite the establishment of the interim government, the human rights situation in Afghanistan has not improved much. Reports from humanitarian groups indicate that the people of Afghanistan continue to be plagued by fears of insecurity. The combination of violent crime, political intimidation and media censorship has created significant fear amongst civilians. Although Kabul is secure, the situation outside the capital is dire. On August 11, 2003, NATO took command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). However, with only 6,500 troops, ISAF can only operate in and around Kabul. This has left the rest of country extremely unsafe and insecure. In October 2003, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution authorizing the expansion of ISAF's operations. However, this expansion has been slow in coming despite growing instability.

The Berlin Donor Conference (2004) raised $8.2 billion for Afghanistan over the next three years, with the U.S. contributing $2.2 billion for the next two years. The Afghan government of Hamid Karzai had hoped to raise $27.6 billion for the next seven years. Afghanistan, although one of the world's poorest countries, will receive substantially less aid next year ($4.5 billion) in comparison to Iraq, which will receive $20 billion.

Today

The current picture is mixed. There has been significant progress in some areas, notably progress towards democratic elections and the repatriation of millions of refugees that fled the country in 2001 and 2002. However, there are still significant problems. The central government has yet to exercise effective control over much of the country. Various warlords, drug-lords, and Taliban sympathizers have filled the vacuum left by the lack of central government rule outside Kabul. Much of the countryside is still unsafe, opium production has skyrocketed, and Afghanistan is facing its sixth straight year of droughts. While the possibility of continued progress exists, the country could also descend into chaos and violence.

Constitutional Update
One of the bright spots has been the progress made towards democratic elections. In January 2004 the loya jirga (national council) adopted the new constitution, it was signed by President Karzai on January 26, 2004, and the country was set to hold presidential elections in June. However, due to insecurity and low voter registration, the presidential and parliamentary elections were initially postponed until September 2004. Presidential elections are now scheduled to take place on October 9, 2004, while the parliamentary elections have been delayed until 2005. The interim president, Hamid Karzai, is running against a field of 17 other candidates. Karzai is widely expected to win the vote on October 9, but may not receive more than 50% of the vote. If he does not, then there will be a run-off election. Karzai’s most significant challenges come from individuals representing some of Afghanistan’s ethnic groups, including Yunus Qanuni (Tajik), Rashid Dostum (Uzbek), and Mohammed Mohaqiq (Hazara). Karzai is a Pashtun, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan.

After a slow start, voter registration has taken off. The UN recently reported that more than 10 million people have now been registered to vote. In fact, the problem now is too many voters, rather than too few. The number of people now registered to vote is several hundred thousand larger than the estimated number of people eligible to vote, and most observers believe that many people have registered more than once. The extent of the voter fraud is hard to estimate, and it is unknown whether it is significant enough to prevent the holding of fair elections. Fair elections may also be hindered by the absence of election observers. Many groups that observe elections, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (the OSCE), have declined to participate in the Afghan elections because of a pervading lack of security. Nevertheless, the UN believes it has sufficient checks in place to prevent voter fraud on election day and is confident that a fair election can take place.

Refugees
Another success is the repatriation Afghan refugees. Under a program operated by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 3 million Afghan refugees have returned home from camps in Pakistan and Iran. More than a million refugees still remain in camps in the neighboring countries, but most are expected to have returned by the time the program ends in 2006.

Insecurity in Afghanistan
Afghanistan also has serious problems, many of which are interconnected. Much of the countryside is controlled by warlords, drug-lords and Taliban supporters. Their power is often rooted in ethnic affiliations and the money supplied by the booming drug trade. The result has been a chronic lack of security. The warlords, the drug trade, and the lack of security are inter-related problems that the central government seems incapable of solving on its own.

In many provinces outside Kabul, security forces are controlled by local military strongmen as a means of acquiring and maintaining political power. This problem is exacerbated by the sheer numbers of armed combatants and military equipment under the control of these warlords. So far, the “governors” of the various provinces have maintained their independence from the weak central government. These warlords have repeatedly fought one another over issues such as control over the drug trade and to expand their territories.

Opium Trade
Another of the serious problems facing Afghanistan is the opium trade. Once again the opium trade is booming. Afghanistan now produces more than 75% of the world’s opium. More than 1.7 million Afghans are directly involved in either the cultivation of poppies or the production and transportation of opium, and the opium trade is estimated to be worth $2.3 billion per year; more than 50% of Afghanistan’s legal gross domestic product. Hundreds of millions of dollars of that money is believed to flow into the hands of the warlords and Taliban remnants that control much of the countryside. They use the money to arm and supply their fighters and resist control by the central government. In addition, poppy cultivation earns farmers far more money than any legitimate crop, and many farmers say they will not stop producing poppies until the government compensates them for the loss of income. The opium trade represents a serious obstacle to the central government’s control over outlying areas and a source of financing for de-stabilizing elements in Afghan society.

Drought
Afghanistan is in the midst of its worst drought in recent history. More than 6.5 million people, or about 40% of the population, are believed to be at risk of malnutrition as Afghanistan endures is sixth consecutive year of drought. The UN has recently said that $71 million is needed for emergency aid as a result of the drought.

Prisoner Abuse
Finally, there have been repeated reports of torture and inhumane treatment of prisoners and civilians by NATO forces in the region. Human Rights Watch claims that US forces have used excessive force when arresting non-combatants, mistreated detainees and used unprovoked deadly force on civilians when law enforcement standards and tactics should have been used. There is also evidence to suggest that Afghan forces working alongside US forces have mistreated persons during search and arrest operations and looted their homes.

Recently, claims of abuses by US forces have been confirmed by the US government. The US Army has just completed an investigation of alleged abuse at detention centers in Afghanistan. The investigation focused on the deaths of two Afghan detainees at Bagram air base in December 2002. Even though the deaths were originally attributed to natural causes, both have now been ruled homicides. Army officials stated that about 2 dozen US soldiers are likely to face charges as a result of the investigation.

Conclusion
Afghanistan is in a delicate position. It is balanced between chaos and progress. One important thing it needs is more active involvement from the West, particularly the provision of additional peacekeeping forces. The central government is not able to control the area outside of Kabul, rein in the warlords, or significantly reduce opium production on its own. NATO countries, including the US, need to supply the peacekeeping troops under the command of ISAF that have already been authorized by the Security Council. Those troops could be used to extend central government control over the countryside and improve security. It might be enough to push Afghanistan towards progress and away from chaos.

Last updated September 3, 2004

+ TAKE ACTION