Background

Iraq is a country with a long, bitter history of conflict.  It has been at war, either internally or externally, for most of the twentieth century.  It is also divided by deep ethnic differences that pose an obstacle to any hope of long-term peace and stability.

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Recent Events

Coalition Forces handed over authority to an Iraqi interim government on June 30, 2004. It was hoped that having Iraqis in charge of the government would undercut support for the insurgency. Although there was a lull in the anti-American insurgency immediately after the hand-over, the number of attacks by insurgents increased sharply in August and September.  While 42 American soldiers died in June, 54 died in July, 66 died in August, and more than 50 died in the first half of September.  In addition, more than 1,100 Americans soldiers were wounded in August, more than in any other month of the insurgency.  To date, more than 1,000 U.S. soldiers have died.

While attacks on Coalition Forces have continued, the insurgents have also directed attacks against the forces of the new Iraqi interim government and Western aid workers. In the last two months, car bombers have attacked police stations and army recruiting offices regularly.  Hundreds of people have been killed and injured. There has also been an increase in kidnappings and beheadings of western civilians who work for companies involved in the reconstruction efforts.

Today, the security situation in Iraq is extremely poor and reconstruction efforts appear to be stalled. The US has admitted that much of the country is controlled by insurgent groups and is inaccessible to Coalition Forces. There are insufficient numbers of properly trained Iraqi security forces.  Less than $1 billion of the $18 billion in reconstruction money appropriated by Congress has been spent, at least in part, because the Coalition does not have access to much of the country. Moreover, the US now intends to spend more than $3 billion of that money on security operations rather than reconstruction. 

The future of Iraq looks uncertain. Newspaper reports have indicated that a recent National Intelligence Estimate of the situation in Iraq prepared by the CIA and delivered to the White House in July contained dire predictions about the future of Iraq. The best-case scenario is a “tenuous stability” maintained by Coalition forces, primarily US troops. The worst-case scenario is the disintegration of the country and a three-way civil war between the Kurds, Sunni and Shi’a. Despite this, the interim government is pressing ahead with plans for elections in January 2005.  Recently, it has been suggested by the Bush administration that elections might only take place in those parts of the country that are firmly under the control of the Coalition Forces and the interim Iraqi government.

Last Updated September 22, 2004

United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI)

Other Documents:

Action Alert: The prisoner Abuse in Iraq is Sickening. The U.S. must be above torture. Act Now: Tell you leaders the U.S. must be above torture
Citizens for Global Solutions

"Iraq: A strategy for Progress", Center for American Progress

"Post-Conflict Lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan", Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies. Testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, May 19, 2004

"Bush Plan for Iraq: A Risk Assessment", Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 25, 2004