Citizens for Global Solutions

PEACE AND SECURITY | Afghanistan

Background

In 1996, the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan and introduced an extremist Islamic rule over the country. Women were excluded from society, punishments such as stoning to death and amputation were imposed, and human rights abuses were commonplace. In addition, Al Qaeda was given a base from which to operate its international terrorist network. After September 11, 2001, a US-led coalition ousted the Taliban as part of the “war on terror.” The coalition created a transitional government led by Preisdent Hamid Karzai to restore governance and the rule of law to the country. In March 2002, the UN Security Council adopted resolution 1401, to establish a United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). The aim of UNAMA is to integrate the work of the 16 UN agencies working in the country so that they could provide support to the transitional government in the reconstruction and stabilization of the country.

After the Taliban

However, despite the establishment of the interim government, the human rights situation in Afghanistan did not improve much. Reports from humanitarian groups indicate that the people of Afghanistan continued to be plagued by fears of insecurity. The combination of violent crime, political intimidation and media censorship created significant fear amongst civilians. Although Kabul is secure, the situation outside the capital remained dire.

On August 11, 2003, NATO took command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). However, with only 6,500 troops, ISAF can only operate in and around Kabul. This has left the rest of country extremely unsafe and insecure. In October 2003, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution authorizing the expansion of ISAF's operations. However, this expansion has been slow in coming despite the instability.

The Berlin Donor Conference (2004) raised $8.2 billion for Afghanistan over the next three years, with the U.S. contributing $2.2 billion for the next two years. The interim government of Hamid Karzai had hoped to raise $27.6 billion for the next seven years. Afghanistan, although one of the world's poorest countries, will receive substantially less aid next year ($4.5 billion) in comparison to Iraq, which will receive $20 billion.

One of the bright spots has been the progress made towards democratic elections. In January 2004 the loya jirga (national council) adopted the new constitution, it was signed by interim President Karzai on January 26, 2004, and the country was set to hold presidential elections in June. However, due to insecurity and low voter registration, the presidential and parliamentary elections were postponed. Presidential elections eventually took place on October 9, 2004, and parliamentary elections have been delayed until 2005.

Today

The situation in Afghanistan has improved in recent months. While there are still significant problems, particularly ongoing droughts and rampant opium production, the recent presidential election occurred with little violence. Hamid Karzai decisively won the election and now has a powerful mandate to continue the process of reconstruction. His popularity may give him the political capital to take on the powerful warlords and drug lords that continue to cause problems in many rural areas. Reasserting central government control in rural areas must be one of the first tasks of Hamid Karzai’s administration.

Constitutional Update

On October 9th, Afghans went to the polls for the first time in their history. They were choosing between eighteen candidates for president and thirty-six candidates for vice-president. There had been concerns that remnants of the Taliban could use violence to disrupt the elections, but by all reports, the elections occurred without significant violence. In fact, the public response to voting was described by BBC correspondents as enthusiastic.

After nearly three weeks of vote counting, it is now clear that Hamid Karzai will be Afghanistan's first democratically elected President. With more than 98% of the ballots counted, Mr. Karzai received over 55% of the vote. His closest competitor, Yonous Qanooni, the former Education Minister, received only 16% of the vote. By receiving more than 50% of the vote, Mr. Karzai avoided a run-off election with Mr. Qanooni. Despite initial complaints from Mr. Karzai's competitors about voting irregularities, it appears that they will unanimously accept him as the new President.

Refugees

Another success is the repatriation of Afghan refugees. Under a program operated by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 3 million Afghan refugees have returned home from camps in Pakistan and Iran. More than a million refugees still remain in camps in the neighboring countries, but most are expected to have returned by the time the program ends in 2006.

Insecurity in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has serious problems, many of which are interconnected. Much of the countryside is controlled by warlords, drug-lords and Taliban supporters. Their power is often rooted in ethnic affiliations and the money supplied by the booming drug trade. The result has been a chronic lack of security. The warlords, the drug trade, and the lack of security are inter-related problems that the central government has had difficulty solving on its own.

In many provinces outside Kabul, security forces are controlled by local military strongmen as a means of acquiring and maintaining political power. This problem is exacerbated by the sheer numbers of armed combatants and military equipment under the control of these warlords. So far, the “governors” of the various provinces have maintained their independence from the weak central government. These warlords have repeatedly fought one another over issues such as control over the drug trade and to expand their territories.

It is hoped that Mr. Karzai’s overwhelming success in the recent elections will give him enough power to confront the warlords and drug lords. It is crucial to the success of reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan that the central government reign in the “governors” of the various provinces. Central government control is also probably a prerequisite to curtailing opium production. The governors have little incentive to control it on their own because much of their independence results from the money provided by the opium trade.

Opium Trade

Once again, the opium trade is booming. Afghanistan now produces more than 75% of the world’s opium. More than 1.7 million Afghans are directly involved in either the cultivation of poppies or the production and transportation of opium, and the opium trade is estimated to be worth $2.3 billion per year; more than 50% of Afghanistan’s legal gross domestic product. Hundreds of millions of dollars of that money is believed to flow into the hands of the warlords and Taliban remnants that control much of the countryside. They use the money to arm and supply their fighters and resist control by the central government. In addition, poppy cultivation earns farmers far more money than any legitimate crop, and many farmers say they will not stop producing poppies until the government compensates them for the loss of income. The opium trade represents a serious obstacle to the central government’s control over outlying areas and a source of financing for de-stabilizing elements in Afghan society.

Drought

Afghanistan is in the midst of its worst drought in recent history. More than 6.5 million people, or about 40% of the population, are believed to be at risk of malnutrition as Afghanistan endures is sixth consecutive year of drought. The UN has recently said that $71 million is needed for emergency aid as a result of the drought.

Prisoner Abuse

Finally, there have been repeated reports of torture and inhumane treatment of prisoners and civilians by NATO forces in the region. Human Rights Watch claims that US forces have used excessive force when arresting non-combatants, mistreated detainees and used unprovoked deadly force on civilians when law enforcement standards and tactics should have been used. There is also evidence to suggest that Afghan forces working alongside US forces have mistreated persons during search and arrest operations and looted their homes.

Conclusion

While Afghanistan still faces serious problems, things have been improving recently. The decisive success of Mr. Karzai in the presidential elections, combined with the relative lack of violence during the voting, suggests that Afghanistan may have turned the corner. If Mr. Karzai can establish a strong central government and reassert control over rural areas, then the situation will probably continue to improve. However, the continued support of the United States, NATO and the rest of the international community is very important. If Mr. Karzai’s government fails to establish firm control over the country, then the recent progress may be lost. Afghanistan is not out of the woods yet.

Last updated October 27, 2004

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